A broad overview of America’s beer, spirits, and wine consumption reveals a steady increase since the Dot Com bust, with per capita levels approaching the highs last seen during the inflation-driven misery storm of the 1970s. Economic misery and rising alcohol consumption often go hand in hand.
“During periods of recession, US per capita alcohol consumption from beer, spirits, and wine has been very resilient. Total beer volume declined in 2009 whilst spirits volume continued to grow,” Goldman’s Olivier Nicolaï told clients in a note on Tuesday.
Nicolaï noted, “Within overall US alcohol consumption, beer has been steadily losing share to spirits over the last 20 years. Within the spirits category, tequila has been gaining market share at the expense of vodka over recent years.”
Six decades of US per capita alcohol consumption data shows how war and economic misery can impact drinking rates among consumers. From the 1960s to the 1970s, the rate of alcohol consumption soared on a per capita basis, likely due to foreign wars and high inflation. Around the time the Fed regained control of inflation with interest rate hikes in the late 1970s and early 80s, consumption rates eventually topped and fell as easier economic conditions led to boom cycles. However, drinking rates bottomed at the end of the 90s, rising just after the Dot Com bust, rising higher with endless Middle East wars, dipped slightly but jumped following the 2008 GFC, and surged in recent years after government-enforced lockdowns during the pandemic, Ukraine War, and ongoing inflation storm.
One noticeable trend Nicolaï found in the latest surge in drinking trends is that spirits have become increasingly popular in the US market as beer demand slides.
He said tequila has become the top spirit of choice among US drinkers, a trend that became apparent in 2016.
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